An alert about a "tropical cyclone TWO" near the Seychelles has been shared widely this week. It warns of strengthening winds and heavy rain for East Africa early next week. Coming in the middle of a dry, hot October, with farmers waiting on the first effective rains, it's fair to ask whether any of that rain will reach Zimbabwe.

It won't. The storm is real, and it has already caused damage in the Seychelles, but every official forecast keeps it more than 1,500 km north of Zimbabwe. This piece covers what the storm is, where it's going, and which kind of cyclone actually matters for a Zimbabwean farm.

What the storm is

The system formed near the main islands of the Seychelles last week. The Seychelles Meteorological Authority began tracking it on 15 October. Météo-France La Réunion, the WMO centre responsible for cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean, started issuing advisories on 19 October. On 20 October it was named Agueda, the first named storm of the 2026/27 season. The name was put forward by Mozambique.

The alert circulating on social media gets a few details wrong:

  • The name is Agueda, not "TWO". The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center numbers it 02S, which is probably where "TWO" came from. Météo-France, which names storms in this basin, calls it Agueda.
  • It's a moderate tropical storm, not a cyclone. In the south-west Indian Ocean, "tropical cyclone" is reserved for systems with sustained winds of at least 118 km/h. Agueda peaked at about 75 km/h. Météo-France expects it to reach strong tropical storm strength on 22 October before weakening.
  • "Victoria islands" means the Seychelles. Victoria is the capital, on Mahé.

The alert's broad picture is right, though. The storm is moving slowly west-south-west, is expected to weaken over the weekend, and its remnants are forecast to drift towards the coast of Kenya and Tanzania early next week.

Damage in the Seychelles

The heavy rain came before the storm was even named. By 4 p.m. on 19 October, the Seychelles' Department of Risk and Disaster Management had 103 active emergency cases across Mahé, Praslin and La Digue: flooding, fallen trees, landslides, rockfalls and damage to utilities. State schools closed on 20 October. On La Digue, heavy rain combined with high tides meant floodwater couldn't drain and had to be pumped. Officials expected conditions to improve from Wednesday morning, 21 October.

Where it's going

At 4 a.m. Réunion time on 21 October, Agueda was at about 5°S, 52.8°E, roughly 1,780 km north of Réunion. It was moving west-south-west at 6 km/h. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center put it about 800 nautical miles (around 1,500 km) east of Dar es Salaam.

Météo-France's five-day forecast keeps the centre between 4°S and 7°S the whole way:

  • 22 October: 6.4°S, 51.6°E, strong tropical storm
  • 23 October: 6.9°S, 49.8°E, moderate tropical storm
  • 24 October: 6.6°S, 47.0°E, moderate tropical storm
  • 25 October: 5.8°S, 44.2°E, remnant low
  • 26 October: 3.6°S, 42.1°E, remnant low

The last point sits off the coast near the Kenya–Tanzania border. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has the storm breaking up over open water by 23–24 October. Météo-France warns that its track and intensity forecasts "are to be treated with the greatest caution" because of the uncertainty involved.

Why it won't reach Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe lies between about 15.5°S and 22.5°S. Agueda is forecast to stay north of 7°S and to fade out off the East African coast, with Tanzania and northern Mozambique in between. Its closest forecast point is more than 1,500 km from Zimbabwe's northern border. The moisture it pulls in will fall on the Seychelles, the open ocean and possibly coastal Kenya and Tanzania.

The latest FEWS NET climate bulletin for Zimbabwe, issued on 15 October, says no tropical storm is expected to affect the country in the coming weeks, and no flooding is expected in the next three weeks.

That matters for planting. A storm that's in the news is not a sign that the season has started. MSD will declare the onset of the rains from its own indicators. The planting rule we use, from the AREX research behind our Hwedza planting-window study, is more than 25 mm of rain within 7 days, with no 10-day dry spell in the following 20. Agueda will not give any part of Zimbabwe that.

The cyclones that do matter for Zimbabwe

Cyclones that reach Zimbabwe follow a different path. They form further south, cross Madagascar or develop in the Mozambique Channel, then make landfall in central Mozambique and push inland. Cyclone Eline in February 2000 and Cyclone Idai in March 2019 both took that route. Idai killed hundreds of people in Chimanimani and Chipinge and destroyed crops, livestock, roads and homes across Manicaland.

Those storms usually arrive between January and March, at the height of the season. October storms near the Seychelles, like Agueda, rarely come anywhere near.

This season's outlook from the South-West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum, which met in the Seychelles in September, expects:

  • Below-normal cyclone activity across the basin, because of El Niño.
  • Cyclone tracks shifting southward, which could lower the risk of landfall in Madagascar and Mozambique.
  • Drier conditions in southern and central Mozambique, Malawi and South Africa, and wetter conditions in Tanzania and the far north of the region.

The forum also warned that below-normal activity across the basin "does not imply an absence of local cyclone risk." One storm in the wrong place is enough, as Idai showed. For Zimbabwe in an El Niño year, a cyclone landfall in central Mozambique is a double-edged risk: flooding and wind damage in the east, but also one of the few ways a dry season can get a big rainfall boost.

What to do now

  • Don't plant on cyclone news. Wait for MSD's onset declaration and an effective-rain event. Agueda changes nothing for your planting date.
  • Get your news from MSD. Use the Meteorological Services Department's website and official channels, not forwarded alerts. This week's alert had the storm's name and category wrong.
  • Prepare for storms as part of normal season prep. Check roof sheeting and fixings on farm buildings before the rains. Our guide to roofing a farm structure covers fixings and pitch. Clear drains and contour ridges, and keep stored grain off the floor and away from walls.
  • Watch the Mozambique Channel from January. If MSD or Météo-France report a storm forming there and heading for central Mozambique, Manicaland, Masvingo and Mashonaland East farmers should get livestock to higher ground and secure stored grain and inputs early.
  • Plan for a dry season. The forecasts still point to below-normal rain for most of Zimbabwe from November to January, with temperatures 1–2°C above average. Our round-up of what each institution is telling farmers about El Niño covers the planting advice.

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