Since April, farmers have heard warnings about the 2026/27 season from the Meteorological Services Department, the Ministry of Agriculture, the regional climate forum, seed houses, the UN and farmer unions. The headline is the same everywhere: El Niño is likely, and a drier season with long dry spells is the base case. The practical advice is not the same everywhere. It changes with who is giving it and what they're responsible for.

This piece sets that advice out by institution, then covers where they agree, where they differ, and what that means for a planting plan.

The forecasters: MSD and SARCOF

Meteorological Services Department (MSD). MSD's preliminary alert in May put the chance of El Niño developing this season at 88–94%. Historically, El Niño years bring below-normal rainfall to Zimbabwe about 65% of the time. MSD was also the most cautious voice. It told farmers not to make critical decisions on preliminary models, because of the "spring predictability barrier" that makes forecasts made in autumn less reliable. Its advice was to carry on with normal preparations, start using water-conservation and moisture-retention practices, and identify drought-tolerant seed. It also asked farmers to rely only on official MSD channels for updates.

The rains of the past fortnight are a live example of why MSD insists on that. On 23 September, MSD deputy director Isaac Masawana said the storms were a passing system from the west: "This has nothing to do with the start of the season." MSD will declare the onset from established meteorological indicators, not from isolated storms. On 28 September it also warned that the same storms could bring strong winds that damage roofing and structures. For anyone still holding a late crop in the field, rain during grain-fill and maturity can lower grain quality and raise the risk of fungal disease.

SARCOF-33 (the regional consensus). The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum met in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to 28 August. It forecast below-normal rainfall for much of Zimbabwe in every rolling three-month window from October 2026 to March 2027, and above-normal temperatures. It expects El Niño to peak in October–December. In January–March, when maize silks and a dry spell does the most damage, northern and eastern Zimbabwe lean below-normal to normal. The south and west lean normal to below-normal. Environment Minister Evelyn Ndlovu gave Cabinet the national version on 9 September. She described a season "erratic in space and time with frequent dry spells" and noted that parts of Matabeleland South and Masvingo could see near-normal rain in December.

The Ministry of Agriculture and AGRITEX

The ministry's advice is the most operational. Permanent Secretary Prof. Obert Jiri told farmers that "holing out must be done now, when it's dry." In other words, dig Pfumvudza planting basins before the rains, and collect mulch while it's still available. He has also said farmers need local detail from the forecast: when, where and how much it will rain. District teams are expected to use that detail to set safe planting windows for each locality and to steer farmers towards early- to medium-maturing maize where rainfall will be limited.

The government's six-pillar response covers grain reserves, climate-smart agriculture, financing, livestock, food imports and early warning. It sets targets of 1 million hectares under Pfumvudza/Intwasa, 450,000 tonnes in the Strategic Grain Reserve and 7 million hay bales. At farm level, ministry director Kundai Mukuku gave the clearest crop guidance of any official:

  • In drier zones, put small grains first: sorghum, pearl millet and finger millet.
  • Grow ultra-short-season maize only where rainfall or irrigation can support it.
  • Plant with the first effective rains, using potholing and mulching.
  • Keep a household grain reserve instead of selling the whole harvest straight away.

Agriculture Minister Anxious Masuka has pointed farmers in Natural Regions III, IV and V specifically to Pfumvudza and to sorghum and millets. The government is also pushing irrigation, from 258,000 hectares today towards 496,000 hectares by 2030. For farmers with water, that makes a more aggressive cereal and cash-crop plan reasonable.

The seed houses: Seed Co

Seed Co's answer is breeding. The company has been widening its range of early-maturing, drought-tolerant maize ahead of this season. In March it launched SC449, an early-maturity hybrid, at Rattray Arnold Research Station. SC449 joins its ultra-early and early hybrids such as SC301, SC303 and SC419, alongside the medium-maturity SC665. The commercial message follows the ministry's: a shorter, harder season calls for early-to-medium varieties, and long-season hybrids are a poor bet. Seed Co's approach assumes maize is still worth growing if you choose the right hybrid. That isn't quite the ministry's emphasis on small grains in the dry regions.

The UN agencies: FAO and FEWS NET

FAO works at district and national level, not on individual farms. At a June coordination meeting in Harare, it said Zimbabwe was already inside the window for "anticipatory action." It called for drought-tolerant seed and inputs to be delivered before the season, livestock-based livelihoods to be protected, water harvesting and irrigation to be prioritised, and support to be targeted at the highest-risk districts. FAO's regional analysis gives much of Zimbabwe a better-than-50% chance of agricultural drought. Its summary line: "Acting now allows us to protect farmers before losses occur."

FEWS NET's concern is what comes after the harvest. It expects El Niño to cut household income from farm labour and livestock sales in late 2026. It also expects rising pressure on maize prices in deficit areas, even after an above-average 2026 harvest nationally. For a smallholder, that supports Mukuku's point: holding grain back this year is insurance, not hoarding.

Livestock: Matopo and the veterinary services

Livestock advice is about building fodder reserves before the grazing runs out. Farmers are being urged to conserve grass, bale hay, and keep maize stover and wheat straw. They are also being encouraged to consider early destocking in the worst-hit districts rather than lose animals late in the season. Obey Daga of Matopo Research Institute recommended Chinese grass (Juncao) as fodder, because it can be cut at least four times in a rainy season. The government has installed 240 solar-powered boreholes at dip tanks, with 1,300 more planned, and is promoting hardy local breeds such as Mashona, Tuli and Nguni. Our guide to dry-season feeding for communal cattle covers the rations in detail.

The farmer unions

The Zimbabwe Farmers Union's most detailed El Niño guidance dates from November 2023, ahead of the last El Niño season, and it still holds. Secretary General Paul Zakariya said then that "it will not make sense to grow long-season varieties." He urged farmers to plant early on area-specific weather information and to invest in irrigation. In the same discussion, agricultural economist Dr Renneth Mano went further than the ministry does now. He told farmers not to plant a normal-year crop mix, to shift towards sorghum, millet, sunflower and groundnuts, and to take weather-indexed insurance alongside input loans.

Where they agree, and where they don't

Where they agree: no long-season maize, conservation agriculture with mulch, water harvesting, drought-tolerant seed, and fodder reserves for livestock. Every institution above says some version of this.

Where they differ:

  1. How much to trust the forecast. MSD warns against acting on preliminary models and against treating early storms as the onset. The ministry wants basins dug now. These two positions can both be followed: prepare land fully now, then commit seed only after MSD declares the onset.
  2. How much maize. Seed Co's range assumes early hybrids can carry a maize crop through a dry year. The ministry points dry regions to small grains first. The 2023 union-side advice went further again, towards a different crop mix altogether. Your natural region decides which applies: early maize is reasonable in Region II. In IV and V, small grains should be most of the crop.
  3. When to plant. "First effective rains" (the ministry) and "plant early" (ZFU, 2023) only work with a definition of effective. Our Hwedza planting-window study uses the AREX criterion: more than 25 mm of rain within 7 days, with no 10-day dry spell in the following 20. A September storm doesn't meet it.

What this means for your plan

  • Dig basins and gather mulch now, while labour is free and the ground is dry.
  • Buy early or ultra-early maize for your better-watered land, and sorghum or millet seed for your driest land. Buy before December, when stock of the popular varieties tends to run short.
  • Wait for MSD's onset declaration and a rainfall event that meets an effective-rain rule before you plant.
  • Bale grass and keep your stover now. Decide on any destocking before the veld runs out, not after.
  • Hold back part of this year's harvest if you still have it.

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