Zimbabwe goes into this planting season with full granaries and a bad forecast. The 2026 maize harvest came in at about 2.68 million tonnes from 1.96 million hectares, one of the best in years. The 2026/27 season is expected to be much harder. Cabinet expects total grain output to fall to about 1.6 million tonnes, against a national requirement of roughly 2.2 million tonnes. It puts the cereal deficit at between 267,000 and 542,000 tonnes.

Every regional and national forecaster expects El Niño to bring below-normal rain and long dry spells. Our round-up of the institutional advice covers that forecast in detail. This piece looks at the market side: where prices are heading, what that means for what you plant, and a plan for each type of farm.

What the market is signalling

Grain prices are expected to rise. FEWS NET's September update expects maize prices to keep climbing as demand grows through the lean season. Some farmers and traders are already holding grain back in anticipation. Prices currently vary sharply by region. In July, maize averaged about US$0.22/kg in surplus areas. In August, deficit areas such as Hwange, Tsholotsho and Gwanda were paying US$0.46–0.57/kg, roughly double. Government and private commercial maize purchases from April to late September were 153% higher than a year earlier.

Official prices are going up too. GMB is buying the current crop at US$364.75/t for maize and traditional grains, US$583.01/t for soya beans and US$670.46/t for sunflower. FEWS NET reports that the government has raised the 2027 maize and traditional-grain prices by nearly 20% and the 2026 winter wheat price by 15%. Check the exact 2027 figure with GMB or your AGRITEX officer before you budget on it.

Imports will fill part of the gap. Private grain imports were reopened on 16 September. The USDA expects Zimbabwe to need about 600,000 tonnes of maize imports in the 2026/27 marketing year. Imports put a ceiling on how high local maize prices can go, but they also carry transport costs, which rose in September as diesel went up 7%.

Livestock is where the strain will show. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2.23 million cattle are at risk this lean season, with a supplementary feed deficit of 233,000 tonnes. In March 2024, during the last El Niño drought, cattle in Sanyati and Gokwe that normally fetch US$300–500 were selling for US$150–200, and goats for US$12–15 instead of US$35–40. Selling early, while animals are in condition, avoids that discount.

Inputs are expensive. Fertiliser prices are climbing again (our fertiliser budget guide has the numbers). In a dry year, money spent on fertiliser for a crop that fails is lost, so match the input spend to the realistic yield.

What to plant, by region

The crop choice depends far more on your natural region than on prices.

  • Region I and II (high rainfall: Mashonaland, the eastern highlands). Maize is still viable, but switch to early or medium-maturing hybrids and avoid long-season types. Soya beans and sugar beans fit here, and soya's US$583/t price makes it worth growing. Put some of your land into a small-grain plot as insurance.
  • Region III (moderate rainfall: much of the Midlands and parts of Masvingo and Manicaland). Divide the risk. Grow early maize on your best, wettest land. Put sorghum, sunflower and groundnuts on the rest. Sunflower has the highest official price of any summer crop at US$670/t and handles dry spells better than maize.
  • Regions IV and V (dry: Matabeleland, southern Masvingo, the low veld). Make small grains most of the crop: sorghum, pearl millet and finger millet. Add cowpeas or groundnuts for protein and some income. Plant maize only under irrigation. These areas also have the highest local grain prices, so a successful sorghum or millet crop has a buyer close by.

A plan for each type of farmer

Communal and smallholder farmers

Your priority is feeding the household through 2027. Profit comes second.

  1. Keep part of this year's harvest. With prices expected to rise and deficit areas already paying double, grain held back is worth more later. Store it dry and protect it from weevils.
  2. Plant Pfumvudza/Intwasa plots, plus a small-grain plot. The President asked every homestead to set aside a plot for drought-tolerant traditional grains. Small grains trade at the same official price as maize but are far more likely to produce a crop.
  3. Plant on effective rain, not the first storm. Wait for MSD to declare the onset, and for a rainfall event of more than 25 mm in a week. Our Hwedza planting-window study explains the rule.
  4. Use mulch to save moisture. Basins and mulch let a crop survive a two-week dry spell that would otherwise kill it. Our conservation agriculture data shows the yield difference.
  5. Sell extra livestock before December. Keep your breeding stock and draught animals. Sell the rest while they are still in good condition.

Small-scale commercial and A1 farmers

You can treat this season as a business decision, but avoid committing your whole farm to one crop.

  1. Diversify your crop mix. A split of maize, a cash oilseed (soya in wetter areas, sunflower in drier ones) and a small grain spreads the weather risk. Each crop also sells to a different buyer.
  2. Work out your breakeven before buying inputs. Divide your full cost per hectare by the producer price to get the yield you need just to cover costs. If your land can't reach that yield in a dry year, grow less maize and put more of the budget into crops that need less fertiliser.
  3. Use contract and buyer schemes. Sorghum (for the brewers), cotton and oilseed contractors supply inputs against a guaranteed buyer. A contract reduces both your input cost and your marketing risk.
  4. Stagger your planting. Plant in two or three batches about a week apart. One dry spell then won't hit the whole crop at the same growth stage.
  5. Ask about weather-index insurance. If you're taking an input loan, ask the lender whether weather-index cover is available alongside it.

Farmers with irrigation

This is the season where water pays for itself.

  1. Plan for the scarcity premium. With output down and prices up, irrigated maize and wheat will sell well. FEWS NET reports the government has raised the next wheat price by 15%.
  2. Grow horticulture for town markets. Tomatoes, onions, leafy vegetables and potatoes will be scarce wherever dryland gardens fail. Irrigated growers close to Harare, Bulawayo and Mutare can sell into that gap.
  3. Budget your water and power before you plant. Boreholes fall and small dams dry out in an El Niño year. Plant only the area you can water through a January–February dry spell. Look at solar pumping if your diesel bill is rising.
  4. Grow fodder for sale. Livestock owners face a 233,000-tonne feed deficit. Irrigated fodder or maize silage will find buyers by mid-2027.

Livestock farmers

  1. Destock early. Sell old, unproductive and excess animals from now until December, while prices hold. Waiting means selling thin animals into a crowded market at a heavy discount.
  2. Build a fodder bank now. Bale veld grass, keep maize stover and buy hay before demand peaks. Our guide to dry-season feeding for communal cattle covers rations.
  3. Lean towards goats and hardy breeds. Goats browse what cattle can't and cope better in drought. Mashona, Tuli and Nguni cattle hold condition better than exotic breeds.
  4. Keep vaccinations and dipping up to date. Stressed animals catch disease more easily. Check movement permits when buying, since foot-and-mouth restrictions remain in parts of the south.

Tobacco and cotton growers

The 2026 tobacco season set a volume record of 357 million kg. But growers planted 15% more land, the average price fell to US$2.49/kg, and estimated revenue per hectare dropped by about a third. That is an argument for raising yield and quality on the land you already farm rather than planting more, especially in a dry year. Irrigated tobacco planting was about 20% behind last year by late September. Cotton is relatively drought-tolerant, but no 2026/27 price had been announced when we published. Don't plant more than your contract covers until you know the price.

How to get through to 2027

Whatever you farm, the same rules apply this season:

  • Hold cash and grain in reserve. Don't spend the whole 2026 harvest income on inputs for a season that may fail.
  • Sell early what will lose value: thin livestock and surplus grain in surplus areas. Hold what will gain value: well-stored grain, especially near deficit areas.
  • Pay for water first. A borehole, a small dam, a tank, or tied ridges and basins are worth more than extra fertiliser in a dry year.
  • Plan for a second season of drought. FEWS NET expects the worst livestock impacts in the 2027/28 lean season, after this rainy season fails to regrow grazing. Plan livestock numbers for 18 months, not 6.

A forecast is a probability. Some districts will get decent rain even in an El Niño year, as parts of Matabeleland South and Masvingo may in December. A plan that does well in a normal year and still survives a dry one beats betting everything on either outcome.

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